LAST WEEKMortgage bond prices fell last week pushing interest rates moderately higher. The up and down trading pattern continued with rates rising and falling throughout the week. Strong stocks mid week and stronger than expected ISM Index data didn’t help rates. Consumer confidence came in at 53.5, higher than the expected 49.9 mark and pressured rates. Weekly jobless claims and factory orders data were near expectations. Rates rose by about 1/4 of a discount point for the week.
THIS WEEK
The Treasury auctions and the weekly jobless claims data will be the most important releases this week. Expect more volatility, as stocks and bonds are likely to continue their back and forth trading pattern.
THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC DATA
EconomicIndicator
ReleaseDate & Time
ConsensusEstimate
Analysis
3-year Treasury Note Auction
Tuesday, Sept. 71:15 pm, et
None
Important. $33 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
10-year Treasury Note Auction
Wednesday, Sept. 8,1:15 pm, et
Important. $21 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Fed “Beige Book”
Wednesday, Sept. 8,2:00 pm, et
Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Credit
Wednesday, Sept. 8,3:00 pm, et
Down $1.1 billion
Low importance. A significantly larger than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.
Trade Data
Thursday, Sept. 9,8:30 am, et
$48 billion deficit
Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims
485k
Important. An indication of employment. An increase in jobless claims may bring lower rates.
30-year Treasury Bond Auction
Thursday, Sept. 9,1:15 pm, et
Important. $13 billion of bonds will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
FOCUS ON:Trade Data
In the distant past the US economy tended to be viewed as relatively unaffected by economic activity in other countries. However, increased trades with other countries and an increased reliance on foreign purchases of US debt have generated a market awareness of trade-related issues. The exchange rate of the dollar and foreign trade flows are interrelated. One must buy dollars to purchase US exports, and sell dollars to buy imports. Likewise, foreign investment in US debt requires the purchase of US dollars, and is thus affected by exchange rates.
Each month the Commerce Department gathers an enormous amount of detailed data on exports and imports. The data is broken between goods and services trade. The overall trade balance is the dollar difference between US exports and imports on a seasonally adjusted basis. The report also highlights trade flows between the US and various partners. Since the mid-1970’s, US imports of consumer and capital goods have exceeded exports, so a merchandise trade deficit has existed. The US has always maintained a service trade surplus, and because this surplus is not enough to offset the merchandise trade deficit, a net export deficit has resulted.
Because of the overwhelming amount of data considered, trade is difficult to forecast, and can present surprises. For a variety of reasons, the financial markets will often be unaffected by surprises in trade data. However, the data still has the ability to cause mortgage interest rate volatility.
Jeffrey D Mintz, MLO 18952
The information contained herein is derived from sources deemed to be reliable. No warranty is either expressed or implied as to their fitness for use for any particular purpose. Do not make financial decisions based upon the information contained herein.
EVENT CALENDARThursday, Sep 2, 2010Factory Orders @ 10 am etFriday, Sep 3, 2010Employment @ 8:30 am etJeffrey D Mintz, MLO 18952
The market is unchanged since Tuesday pricing was completed
COMMENTARY10:00 am PriceMortgage bond prices were higher Tuesday morning adding to the gains seen Monday afternoon. Rates are finding support from weak stocks. In news released this morning, consumer confidence stood at 53.5, much better than expectations for a read of 49.9. This data reversed losses in stocks and pressured MBS prices. Traders will spend the day watching stocks to help gauge interest rate direction as they wait for the release of the minutes from the last Fed meeting. The data will be released at 2:00 pm ET. Traders will be looking for what actions the Fed may take should the economy continue to slide. At pricing the DOW was higher by 14-points.
CURRENT INDICES
Event Calendar: Wednesday, Sep 1, 2010ADP Employment @ 8:30 am etWednesday, Sep 1, 2010ISM Index @ 10 am etWednesday, Sep 1, 2010Construction Spending @ 10 am etWednesday, Sep 1, 2010Revised Q2 Productivity @ 8:30 am etWednesday, Sep 1, 2010Factory Orders @ 10 am etFriday, Sep 3, 2010Employment @ 8:30 am et
The market is unchanged since Thursday 's ratesheet Commentary & News: PriceWhile Mortgage bond prices where positive this morning yesterday's losses could not be erased. Weekly jobless claims 473k, expected 490k, continued claims 4.456m, expected 4.5m. This data was not bond friendly and the entire bond market was actually better prior to the release. We have a 7 YR auction this afternoon. Yesterday's 5 YR auction sent mortgage bonds tumbling lower and rates higher so that is always a concern heading into this afternoon. CURRENT INDICES:
Event Calendar: Thursday, Aug 26, 2010Weekly Jobless Claims @ 8:30 am ETThursday, Aug 26, 20107-year Treasury Note Auction @ 1:15 pm ETFriday, Aug 27, 2010Q2 GDP second revision @ 8:30 am ETFriday, Aug 27, 2010U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 am ET
The information contained herein is believed to be true and was derived from sources deemed to be reliable. No warranty is either expressed or implied as to their fitness for use for any particular purpose. Do not make financial decisions based upon the information contained herein.
The market is worse by 1/8 since Tuesday 's ratesheet Existing home sales fell 27.2%, weaker than the expected 4.3% decline, Treasury auction this afternoon. COMMENTARY: Mortgage bonds are slightly negative, wiping out yesterday afternoon's small gains. Existing home sales fell 27.2%, weaker than the expected 4.3% decline. Previously such news was good for bonds but at this point the market may just be numb to this continual knell.The Treasury Auction this afternoon will feature record debt entering the market. Will the results be positive for mortgage rates? Hopefully, demand will be there.
The Dow is off close to 100 in a continuation of its recent downward swoon. CURRENT INDICES:
ECONOMIC CALENDAR: Tuesday, Aug 24, 2010Existing Home Sales @ 10:00 am ETTuesday, Aug 24, 20102-year Treasury Note Auction @ 1:15 pm ETWednesday, Aug 25, 2010Durable Goods Orders @ 8:30 am ETWednesday, Aug 25, 2010New Home Sales @ 10:00 am ETWednesday, Aug 25, 20105-year Treasury Note Auction @ 1:15 pm EtThursday, Aug 26, 2010Weekly Jobless Claims @ 8:30 am ETThursday, Aug 26, 20107-year Treasury Note Auction @ 1:15 pm ETFriday, Aug 27, 2010Q2 GDP second revision @ 8:30 am ETFriday, Aug 27, 2010U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 am ET
Jeffrey Mintz, MLO 18952
LAST WEEKMortgage bond prices rose last week helping recover some recent losses. The week began with weaker stocks helping the mortgage bond market. Overall trading was choppy, with data coming in inviting rates to both higher and lower levels. Mid-week's higher than expected core producer price index data helped erase most of the Monday morning improvements. However, this was countered with higher jobless claims on Thursday, pressuring stocks and rates lower. Rates fell by about 1/8 of a discount point for the week.
The GDP data will be the most important release this week. The Treasury auctions will continue to receive focus as record debt continues to hit the financial markets.
FOCUS ON:Bailout
It was August 2007 when rates on jumbo loans disconnected from reality and skyrocketed. This was the beginning of the credit crisis, which to some extent has touched everybody on the planet.
Since then we have been through trillion dollar bailouts, a near collapse of the banking and automotive industries, a stock market in freefall and house prices not too far behind. Stocks have recovered somewhat, and in some places housing is showing some life as well. Most economic pundits believe that we are not out of the woods yet and things may become worse before they get better.
The good news is that, through actions by the Federal Reserve, interest rates are at all time lows, presenting opportunities for many homeowners to receive a self funded bailout by dramatically reducing the interest rate on their mortgages. Nobody knows how low rates will go but there is certainty that rates are at historic lows and they will not last forever. Saving money today makes a lot of sense in these difficult and uncertain times. It always makes sense to lock in to a new low and then hope for future improvement.
THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC REPORTS:
Tuesday, Aug. 24,10:00 am, et
Tuesday, Aug. 24,1:00 pm, et
Wednesday, Aug. 25,8:30 am, et
Wednesday, Aug. 25,10:00 am, et
Wednesday, Aug. 25,1:00 pm, et
Thursday, Aug. 26,8:30 am, et
Thursday, Aug. 26,1:00 pm, et
Friday, Aug. 27,8:30 am, et
Friday, Aug. 27,10:00 am, et
Regards,Jeffrey D Mintz, MLO 18952
The market is unchanged since Thursday 's ratesheet COMMENTARY:
Mortgage bond prices added to Thursday afternoon's gains by opening slightly higher on FridayWith no economic news set for release today, traders will spend the day watching stocks to help gauge interest rate direction. MARKET INDICES:
Event Calendar: No economic releases scheduled for today.
Jeffrey Mintz, MLO 18952The information contained herein is believed to be true and was derived from sources deemed to be reliable. No warranty is either expressed or implied as to their fitness for use for any particular purpose. Do not make financial decisions based upon the information contained herein.
EVENT CALENDAR:Thursday, Aug 19, 2010Weekly Jobless Claims @ 8:30 am ETThursday, Aug 19, 2010Leading Economic Indicators @ 10:00 am ETThursday, Aug 19, 2010Philadelphia Fed Survey @ 10:00 am ET Jeffrey D Mintz, MLO 18952The information contained herein is believed to be true and was derived from sources deemed to be reliable. No warranty is either expressed or implied as to their fitness for use for any particular purpose. Do not make financial decisions based upon the information contained herein.
The market is worse by 1/8 since Tuesday 's ratesheet Commentary & News: 10:00 am ET PricingMortgage bond prices remain lower Tuesday morning adding to the losses seen Monday afternoon. Rates are under pressure from both data released this morning and strong stocks. In news released at the open, housing starts stood at 546K. Analysts were expecting starts at 555K. Also, producer prices rose 0.2% and the core rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3%. Traders were expecting PPI to rise 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. This data was mixed with lower housing but higher inflation. Industrial production rose 1.0% and capacity utilization stood at 74.8. Economists’ estimates were for production to rise 0.6% and utilization at 74.5. Both reports were better than expected further pressuring rates. Traders will spend the day watching stocks to help gauge interest rate direction. At pricing the DOW was higher by 52-points. In other news, the Fed will begin purchasing shorter-term treasuries with maturing MBS holding. MARKET INDICES:
Event Calendar: Tuesday, Aug 17, 2010Housing Starts @ 8:30 am ETTuesday, Aug 17, 2010Producer Price Index @ 8:30 am ETTuesday, Aug 17, 2010Industrial Production @ 9:15 am ETTuesday, Aug 17, 2010Capacity Utilization @ 9:15 am ETThursday, Aug 19, 2010Weekly Jobless Claims @ 8:30 am ETThursday, Aug 19, 2010Leading Economic Indicators @ 10:00 am ETThursday, Aug 19, 2010Philadelphia Fed Survey @ 10:00 am ET
The market is better by 3/8 since Friday 's ratesheet NEWS: OpenMortgage bond prices opened higher Monday morning adding to the gains seen Friday afternoon. Rates are finding support from weak stock futures, an indication the DOW Jones index will open lower. With no significant news set for release today, traders will watch stocks to help gauge interest rate direction. Stocks begin trade at 9:30 am ET.
MARKET INDICES:
Event Calendar: Tuesday, Aug 17, 2010Housing Starts @ 8:30 am ETTuesday, Aug 17, 2010Producer Price Index @ 8:30 am ETTuesday, Aug 17, 2010Industrial Production @ 9:15 am ETTuesday, Aug 17, 2010Capacity Utilization @ 9:15 am ETThursday, Aug 19, 2010Weekly Jobless Claims @ 8:30 am ETThursday, Aug 19, 2010Leading Economic Indicators @ 10:00 am ETThursday, Aug 19, 2010Philadelphia Fed Survey @ 10:00 am ET Jeffrey D Mintz, MLO 18952The information contained herein is believed to be true and was derived from sources deemed to be reliable. No warranty is either expressed or implied as to their fitness for use for any particular purpose. Do not make financial decisions based upon the information contained herein.
Jeffrey D. Mintz, MLO 18952
NMLS #1964. MA MB# 4520 Lic. By the NH Banking Dept. ME Lic. #CSO11110
© 2009-2010 Jeffrey D Mintz. All rights reserved.
Real Estate Glossary | Apply Now! | The Loan Process | Improve Your Credit Score | When to get Qualified | What's Required? | Rates and A.P.R. | Are You Pre-Approved? | Mintz's Mortgage Ministry | Win $1000
Copyright © 2010 First Integrity Mortgage, LLCPortions Copyright © 2010 a la mode, inc.Another XSite by a la mode, inc. | Admin Login| Terms of Use| Site Map